In the coming days, the Trump administration will be weighing the pros and cons of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iranian nuclear deal. While most of the European Nations are in favor of retaining the Obama administration nuclear pact, early indicators from President Trump point to scrapping “the worst deal ever made.”
One of the components included in the JCPOA agreement is the irreversible destruction of Iran’s plutonium reactor at Arak. This element does make rebuilding and replacing the reactor very time-consuming, expensive, and the regime would have to illicit overseas suppliers in order to rebuild.
However, yesterday Israel stepped into the fray and released volumes of covert information collected by Mossad that allegedly proves the Iranian regime is already breaking the terms of the agreement.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the agency tasked with keeping Iran on the straight and narrow, routinely conduct intrusive inspections in Iran and according to IAEA inspectors they haven’t been denied access.
However, a quick glance at Trump’s social media feed finds the president is closely monitoring the civil unrest in Iran and may think Iran’s economy is so bogged down by mismanagement, corruption, failing banks that the coming revolution will turn Iran into a partner instead of an “axis of evil.” While sanctions hurt its bottom line, Iran is its own worst enemy. The military wing of the regime is involved in several proxy wars throughout the Middle East spending money the regime does not have.
If the repressive regime continues on its current trajectory, why would any nation want to invest in the place when they can go to the GCC or Saudi Arabia instead? Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman just concluded his American trip to find new investors for the Kingdom and reminded the West of its allegiance.
So would America benefit from leaving the Iranian nuke deal?
“Iran is unlikely to abandon the agreement because the Europeans and other signatories privately say, ‘It’s the Sunni Arabs and Turks, Stupid,’” Colonel (ret) US Army Douglas Macgregor said. “What plan do we have for the 2,000 Army and Marine light infantry in Syria if a military confrontation with Iran occurs? Many in Washington believe that abandoning the agreement will help the cause of Iranians seeking to overthrow the Mullahs? But is this more wishful thinking? What guarantee do we have that a more enlightened government will actually replace the current bunch?”
***According to the State Department, “On July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union (EU), and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful…The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has verified that Iran has implemented its key nuclear-related measures described in the JCPOA, and the Secretary State (John Kerry) has confirmed the IAEA’s verification. As a result of Iran verifiably meeting its nuclear commitments, the United States and the EU have lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, as described in the JCPOA.”